Chapter Fifty-Two: The Tumu Fortress

Lu Qing thought for a moment and said, "At least seventy percent certainty."
"Seventy percent?..."
Lu Qing spoke with confidence, but Director Guo remained pessimistic, worry still etched on his face. Though they’d managed to shake off the dead weight from Gentleman’s Fort, the seven hundred or so people left were, at heart, broken soldiers; among them, only two hundred were armed. Should the Oirat truly seize Jin Family Fort, could so few force their way through?
Perceiving Director Guo’s concerns, Lu Qing continued, "Rest assured, sir. Earlier, Zheng Flagbearer said the Oirat force moving south along the Qing Stone River was merely a detachment. Their aim is to sweep the forts along the way to prevent our troops from gathering, so speed is crucial; they cannot afford to garrison every fort they conquer. If they did, they’d lose momentum. I reckon only the major forts, like the Thousand-Household Stronghold, will be garrisoned, and even then, no more than a hundred men."
Lu Qing’s reasoning was sound. Arat commanded the main force to advance east, attacking Red City and Dragon Gate, seeking to join two other columns under his command. To prevent the Ming from regrouping, he would dispatch a detachment south along the Qing Stone River, sweeping the Ming’s fortified towns. This would not only prevent Ming forces from assembling in large fortresses, but also sap the strength of the Ming in Xuanfu, and confuse Yang Hong in the main city, making it hard to discern where Arat’s main force lay. Thus, Arat’s main column would face less resistance as it advanced; if he succeeded in joining the other raiding forces, he needn’t fear the Ming in Xuanhua, for his men were all cavalry, while Yang Hong’s mounted troops numbered only five thousand at most. At that point, Yang Hong could only rely on his strong city for defense, not daring to meet Arat’s army in open battle.
The many fortified towns in Xuanfu served as nails, securing the city’s safety. If Arat pulled out all those nails, then apart from Xuanhua itself, he could roam Xuanfu at will, doing as he pleased.
Pine Stone Fort, following Dushik and Ma Camp, was the first Hundred-Household Stronghold to be exterminated. It could be imagined that, in the days to come, dozens more such fortified towns would be wiped out like Pine Stone Fort. Those occupied by Oirat troops would be mainly the major strongholds and those controlling key routes; the rest would face slaughter or be left ignored, since a single fort’s Ming defenders posed no threat to the Oirat army.
Similarly, the Oirat detachment could not spare many men to garrison the big forts—Lu Qing estimated around a hundred, based on the Oirat’s current circumstances. If not for the need to store and transport plundered goods after breaking through the border, they might not garrison at all. They lacked the strength to destroy the Ming outright; if not for the unexpected victory at Tumu Fortress, they would likely have plundered and withdrawn as before. Since they must eventually leave, it’s better to bring more men to seize more women, grain, salt, and cloth, rather than tie up troops guarding Ming forts.
"With a hundred or so guarding soldiers, we should manage, but to be safe, we’d best approach under cover of night. The Oirat do not know our strength and shouldn’t rashly leave their fort to pursue us. As long as we move swiftly, we have a good chance. Rest assured, sir."
Having finished speaking, Lu Qing felt a pang of guilt. If he brought along the women and children from Gentleman’s Fort, no matter how fast they moved, they’d never make it through. Should the Oirat discover many women and children among them, even a fool would realize this was not a Ming combat unit, but a group fleeing south from the Mongols. If they pursued, the consequences would be dire; after all, two legs cannot outrun four.
He should never have meddled—Lu Qing deeply regretted it. He’d spoken of a chance to survive and return, but in his heart he didn’t believe that a group so heavily laden with women, children, and the elderly could pass through Mongol-controlled territory.
A slim chance of survival, indeed.
While Lu Qing was lost in regret, Director Guo felt somewhat relieved, yet worried: what if they were discovered and pursued while sneaking past the Oirat?
"Young man, is there any safer way across? If the barbarians catch sight of us, it’s no laughing matter."
"If Jin Family Fort is still in Ming hands, there’ll be no need to fight. If not, do you think the barbarians will let us pass? If they stay inside, fine. But if they come out, a bloodbath is inevitable. At that point, it’s up to fate who survives."
Lu Qing shook his head, refusing to dwell on it. He wished they could slip past Jin Stone Fort unnoticed, but the Oirat weren’t fools; they would not fail to spot so many people passing beneath their fort. If they pursued, survival would depend on luck and speed. The escape from Dushik Fort succeeded only because the Oirat there were infantry; if several hundred mounted Oirat had caused chaos, those gathered here today would number not seven hundred, but seventy—or perhaps only seven.
With two hundred armed, defeated soldiers and four hundred more unarmed, to escape from a hundred Oirat cavalry was no small feat—it was a daunting challenge, with the risk of complete annihilation.
Damn it; whatever happens, even if everyone dies, he must protect Director Guo and help him escape.
Lu Qing gazed at the nearby nags grazing, deep in thought.
Director Guo understood Lu Qing’s reasoning and sighed inwardly—Ming was truly beset by troubles. In the west, Esen invaded Datong; in the east, Arat had entered Xuanfu; and there was no telling what was happening in Liaodong. Now, all he could do was hope the emperor would lead a campaign in person and defeat Esen’s army, so Arat would retreat without a fight, and Xuanfu might be saved. Otherwise, Xuanfu would be reduced to devastation and misery.
Seeing Lu Qing staring at the nags, Director Guo was puzzled and asked, "Young man, what are you thinking?"
"Nothing."
Lu Qing shook his head, saying nothing more. In his heart, however, he was calculating how to reclaim the swift horses ridden by Jiang Tong and the others—this would give them a better chance at escape.
Director Guo thought nothing of it; after kneading his aching legs, he suddenly asked, "Young man, do you think Arat, after joining with the other two forces, will attack Xuanhua?"

"Attack Xuanhua?"
Song Bangde, munching on a dry biscuit, heard Director Guo’s question and immediately looked up, replying, "Sir, Xuanhua is a fortress. Arat’s force is all cavalry—using cavalry to attack a fortified city would be sheer madness."
Flagbearer Lin chimed in, "Given the barbarians’ habits, Arat will likely leave a force to monitor Xuanhua, while the rest rampage through the towns of Xuanfu; once they’ve looted enough, they’ll withdraw."
As he spoke, Flagbearer Ji suddenly grew anxious. "But what if Arat, instead of looting, heads straight south to attack Juyong Pass, threatening the capital?"
"Impossible. Juyong Pass is heavily defended, just as hard to take. Arat wouldn’t do that," Song Bangde firmly dismissed Ji’s unlikely idea. Juyong Pass and Zijing Pass were the final lines of defense for the capital, their security no less than Xuanhua. Arat would have to be insane to assault Zijing Pass; even if he took Juyong Pass, what then? Did he think he could conquer Beijing?
Lin added, "Exactly. Before Juyong Pass, there’s still Huailai Guard. Arat would have to get past them first."
Huailai?
Hearing this place name, Lu Qing suddenly jolted, turning to Lin with urgency. "Tumu Fortress—is it within Huailai’s territory?!"
"Tumu Fortress?"
Lin was startled by Lu Qing’s abrupt reaction. Scratching his head, he replied, "Huailai Guard does have a Tumu Fortress, about twenty li east of Huailai City. But it’s just a Hundred-Household Stronghold, and it’s long been abandoned. I only learned of it a few years ago, when I accompanied the Thousand-Household officer to the capital and happened to pass by. Why do you ask?"